People gather at a bombed site in Sana’a
after Saudi-led air strikes. Photograph: Hani Ali/Xinhua/Corbis
The
Saudi-led military intervention has been strongly backed by the US, and other
global powers may be drawn in as the crisis unfolds
Like
a ticking timebomb left unattended for too long, Yemen’s undeclared civil war
has suddenly exploded into a region-wide crisis that will have far-reaching,
unpredictable international consequences, not least for Britain and the US.
The
conflict, spreading outwards like a poison cloud from the key southern
battleground around Aden, pits Saudi Arabia, the leading Sunni Muslim power,
plus what remains of Yemen’s government against northern-based Houthi rebels,
who are covertly backed by Shia Muslim Iran.
What
has until now been an unacknowledged proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia,
the two great powers of the Middle East, has now burst into an open
confrontation that appears to be escalating rapidly as other countries and
players are sucked in. The primary Saudi aim is to pacify Yemen, but its wider
objective is to send a powerful message to Iran: stop meddling in Arab affairs.
The
Houthis
The
so-called Houthi rebels, also known as Ansar Allah (the Supporters of God),
belong to the Zaidi sect, a relatively obscure branch of Shia Islam. Formed by
members of the northern al-Houthi clan, the group was originally known as
Believing Youth and began life in the early 1990s as a revivalist theological
movement reportedly teaching peaceful co-existence.
The
group was radicalised by the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. Anti-American
demonstrations brought the group into conflict with the government of the then
president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. In 2004, it launched a fully-fledged insurgency.
The
group has sporadically battled both government forces, which have been backed
in recent years by US special forces and drones, and Sunni Muslim extremists
belonging to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which set up bases in Yemen
after being expelled from Afghanistan.
Last
September the Houthis unexpectedly seized the capital, Sana’a. The Yemeni
president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, fled to Aden. The Houthis continued their
advance southwards, and on Saturday they took the central city of Taiz. Hadi’s
whereabouts now are unknown.
The
Saudi-led intervention thus appears designed to prevent the entire country from
falling into Houthi hands and to support what Riyadh says is the legitimate
Yemeni government against its Iranian-backed foes. The Saudis also fear Yemen
becoming a failed state haunted by terrorist groups, like neighbouring Somalia.
The
former president Saleh, who was obliged to stand down in 2012 after 34 years in
power, and his son, Ahmad, are now backing the Houthis against Hadi, the
current president. Part of the problem is that both Saleh and his former
deputy, Hadi, are divisive figures unable to bring together the country’s many
rival forces.
The
Iran-Saudi struggle
Iran
is widely believed to have trained Houthi fighters and supplied arms since the
insurgency began. But this is flatly denied in Tehran. Iran has nevertheless
kept up a constant barrage of criticism of Saudi and western efforts to forge a
political settlement in Yemen. It appears to see the country in terms of a
region-wide struggle for power and influence between itself and Saudi Arabia, a
struggle that in turn reflects the Sunni-Shia schism across the Muslim world.
Its
first reaction to Saudi-led air strikes overnight was to condemn them as
“US-backed aggression”. The foreign ministry in Tehran described the
intervention as a dangerous step with unpredictable consequences. “Iran wants
an immediate halt to all military aggressions and air strikes against Yemen and
its people … Military action in Yemen, which faces a domestic crisis … will
further complicate the situation … and will hinder efforts to resolve the
crisis through peaceful ways,” the ministry spokeswoman, Marzieh Afkham, said.
It
seems possible that the success of the Houthis’ drive south, and the dramatic
Saudi reaction in mobilising an international intervention, has taken Iran by
surprise. It is unclear how much control Tehran exercises over the rebels.
The
long-running rebellion has been a useful, low-cost way for Iran to keep the
Saudis off-balance and under pressure in the regional power battle. Now the
puppet may have broken loose from the puppeteers. Iran is facing off against
Saudi Arabia on other fronts in Syria, the Gulf and not least in Iraq, where
the Shia-led government in Baghdad is widely seen to be under Tehran’s
influence.
Iranian-backed
militia are also leading the current fightback against Sunni Muslim Islamic
State forces north of Baghdad, whom Saudi Wahhabi hardliners and groups are
said to have funded.
US
involvement
The
Saudi move has been strongly backed by the US, Riyadh’s principal ally, which
is providing “logistical and intelligence support”. It is inconceivable that
the Saudis’ stated plan to launch a ground offensive into Yemen employing
150,000 troops would be under contemplation without prior American agreement and
support.
As
yet, American forces do not appear to be directly involved. But the fact that
the Saudis have given the name “Storm of Resolve” to their air operation in
Yemen recalls another big joint operation involving US and Saudi ground forces,
Operation Desert Storm, the 1991 war to drive Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces out
of Kuwait.
The
Saudi decision to unveil the international coalition in Washington suggests
that the Obama administration, rather than the normally risk-averse regime in
Riyadh, may be the driving force behind the intervention.
The
US also sees this fight as part of a much bigger, strategic struggle with Iran.
But little in the Middle East is straightforward. In another regional theatre
of war, the Americans find themselves fighting on the same side as the
Iranians, using their air power to support Iranian-backed Shia militia
attacking Islamic State forces in the Iraqi city of Tikrit.
Incongruous,
too, is the prospect of John Kerry, the US secretary of state, meeting his
Iranian counterpart this week in Lausanne to try to seal a nuclear deal with
Tehran at the same time as the two countries take drastically opposite sides
over Yemen. By dramatising the confrontation with Iran, the Saudis may be
sending a not so oblique message to Washington that the nuclear deal, which
they oppose, is dangerous and that Tehran is not to be trusted.
If
so, they will have Israel’s wholehearted backing. Other western and global
powers may be drawn in as the crisis unfolds. The Saudi-led intervention has
had an immediate, negative impact on world markets, and drove up the overnight
oil price by 6%. Import-dependent China was quick to express its concern, though
oil-producing Russia (and Iran) will be pleased to see energy prices rising.
Diplomats
suggest that Britain, the former colonial power in Yemen and a close Saudi
ally, may also be asked for help, if it has not already been approached. “We
support the Saudi Arabian military intervention in Yemen following President
Hadi’s request for support by ‘all means and measures to … deter Houthi
aggression,’” the Foreign Office said. But it said a political solution must
ultimately be sought.
Arab
joint action
The
newly announced coalition is a notable next stage in the already established
trend towards Arab countries cooperating in their own defence. In diplomatic
terms it also looks like an attempt to send a powerful collective message to
Iran to keep out of Arab world affairs.
The
joint action will receive official blessing at an Arab League summit in Cairo
this week. The coalition includes five of the Gulf Cooperation Council members
– Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain – but not Oman, which declined
to take part.
Also
on board, according to the Saudis, are Pakistan, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt and,
most surprising of all, Sudan. Turkey said it supported the action. It seems
clear that Riyadh has been calling in debts, asking for the support of countries
it has helped financially and diplomatically in the past.
They
include the new regime in Cairo which overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood
government, loathed in Riyadh, and Pakistan, to which the Saudis have made big
loans over the years. Since the Arab spring sent shockwaves through the
region’s unelected regimes, and following the rise of extremist groups such as
al-Qaida and Isis, Arab leaders have been increasingly inclined towards joint
military action to protect their interests. There have been joint
interventions, using air power, in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and Saudi forces
intervened in Bahrain in 2011 to support the Sunni monarchy against its
rebellious Shia subjects.
The
reported involvement of Sudan marks a new departure. The government of Omar al-Bashir
is under sanctions from Washington, and Bashir is wanted for genocide and war
crimes. But Khartoum recently broke with Iran and threw in its lot with the
Saudis, in return for diplomatic cover and help with its possible international
rehabilitation. Now the Saudis are demanding payback.
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